South Africa need 319 to beat Australia in Durban, but a draw is the real prize, and Aiden Markram is still standing in the way.
Durban is set for a showdown on day five at Kingsmead, where the Proteas are trying to save the first Test against Australia on home soil. Play starts at 9.30am local time. Aiden Markram is still at the crease, and he is South Africa's best hope of turning a Test Australia have controlled into something special.
The maths is stark. South Africa need 319 more runs to win, and they are already four wickets down. Markram and Wiaan Mulder are a capable pair, but they have little batting support behind them for a chase this big. A win looks very unlikely.
Australia, meanwhile, need six wickets to close out the match. They have dominated so far, and this Test has largely been shaped by Matt Renshaw's contribution. If the visitors can break through the middle order and expose the tail, the job could be done quickly.
There is a third outcome, and it is where South Africa's real hope lies. If the hosts can bat out 90 overs, the match is drawn. The number could be lower, too, because bad light has repeatedly ended play early in this Test. A draw could come after 60, 70 or 80 overs if the gloom returns.
So the day comes down to two questions: can Markram and Mulder dig in, and will the Durban skies help them? For South Africa, survival would feel like a victory.
