No Limit in the Race for Gueh

Manchester City have raised the stakes in the Premier League title race by flexing their strength in the January transfer market.

Pep Guardiola brought in Antoine Semenyo from Bournemouth last week, and the Ghana forward has wasted no time, scoring twice and supplying an assist in his first two appearances. City are now poised to complete a second major move after reaching an agreement in principle for Crystal Palace captain Marc Guehi, with Guardiola similarly expecting the centre-back to slot smoothly into his starting XI.

With an injury crisis in central defence and a six-point gap to make up on Arsenal after three consecutive league draws, City have capped a year-long rebuild with two statement signings. While the Guehi deal is not yet fully finalised – something Liverpool learned the hard way when they failed to land him in the summer – this time the transfer appears on course to be completed in City’s favour.

Since 1 January 2025, City have brought in 14 players for around £414m, effectively reshaping the squad. Guardiola is now working with a largely new group of players and staff after a disappointing campaign in which the club failed to win a major trophy for the first time in eight years. Key figures of their recent dominance – Kevin de Bruyne, Ederson, Ilkay Gundogan, Kyle Walker and Jack Grealish – all departed in the summer, helping to reduce both the average age and the wage bill.

City’s latest accounts, for the year ending June 2025, show revenues of £694m, the third-highest in the club’s history. In a period when many clubs are constrained by profit and sustainability rules, City have still been able to spend heavily. Football finance expert Kieran Maguire explains that City’s profits of £144m over the past three years, against rules that allow losses of up to £105m over the same period, give them considerable room to manoeuvre. Their wage bill has also fallen as several high earners have moved on.

Crucially, City have excelled in the market as sellers. Over the past three years, they have generated about £350m in profit from player trading, including the £40m sale of academy product Cole Palmer to Chelsea – a fee that counts as pure profit. City may be among the biggest spenders, but they have also recouped more than most, a balance that has proved vital even if it often goes unnoticed by supporters.

Once Guehi’s move is finalised, there will be satisfaction at the Etihad over securing one of the Premier League’s standout centre-backs. The England international has attracted interest from across Europe, not only last summer but again in this window. City have admired the 25-year-old for some time and had initially been prepared to wait until the summer, but injuries to Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol forced them to accelerate their plans.

Youngsters Abdukodir Khusanov and Max Alleyne have impressed when called upon, yet a title race typically demands established performers with big-game experience. Guehi brings exactly that. He captained Palace to a surprise FA Cup final victory over City at Wembley last season and played a key role in England’s run to the Euro 2024 final. Even with his contract entering its final months, a £20m fee for a proven, Premier League-ready international represents excellent value.

Sources stress this is not a panic buy triggered solely by injuries, but a carefully planned deal for a long-term cornerstone of the defence. Since the start of last season, Guehi ranks among the top Premier League centre-backs for clean sheets, duels won, aerial duels won and line-breaking passes, suggesting he will add composure and physical presence to City’s back line. His arrival could also hasten the departure of John Stones, whose contract expires in the summer. The 31-year-old has struggled with injuries, making only 11 league appearances last season and seven so far this term, and Guardiola has already hinted that his fitness record will be a factor in any new deal.

Guehi is expected to walk straight into City’s first team, a bold move that will not go unnoticed at Arsenal as their closest challengers significantly reinforce in an effort to chase them down. The Gunners were also interested in Guehi and hoped he would delay a decision so they could move for him in the summer, but personal terms with City are not expected to pose any problems.

Since taking over in December 2019, Mikel Arteta has overseen more than £900m of spending on new players, including about £250m this past summer in the pursuit of a long-awaited league title. Despite this, Arsenal remain in a position to invest further if required. Maguire believes they could still spend another £100m this month without breaching financial rules, suggesting they retain room to respond.

City have made their intentions clear with decisive moves in the market. The pressure now shifts to Arsenal to decide whether, and how, they will answer.